Last updated: October 24, 2026
On October 14, the U.S. Department of Commerce released the final results of its seventh annual review of the anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Canadian softwood lumber. For most Canadian mills, the combined duty rate falls from 35.16% to 24.75%, a drop of about 10 points. The results were published in the Federal Register on October 19, and the new rates apply from that date.
That’s good news if your pallets, crates, or dunnage are specified in softwood. But don’t expect your next pallet quote to come in 10% lower. Here’s what changed, what’s working against it, and what buyers and exporters in Southeast Wisconsin and northern Illinois can do now.
What changed, and what didn’t
Commerce sets two duties on Canadian softwood lumber. For the “all others” group, which covers most Canadian producers, the anti-dumping rate falls to 10.64% and the countervailing rate falls to 14.11%, for a combined 24.75%.
What didn’t change is the separate 10% Section 232 tariff on imported softwood timber and lumber, in place since October 14, 2025. Add it in, and the total border cost for most Canadian softwood is about 34.75%. That’s lower than before, but still high. Commerce has already started its eighth review, so these rates will be revisited again.
Also worth knowing: the duties apply to lumber, not to finished goods. Under the scope of the trade orders, assembled pallets count as “finished products.” The duty affects what pallet and crate builders pay for softwood, and that cost reaches you indirectly.
Why your pallet price may not follow
1. Lumber got cheaper. Getting it to you got more expensive. Fastmarkets’ US Pallet Analytics (September 2026 edition, published Oct. 5) reported that low-grade lumber prices fell about 4% month over month in most metro markets. Over the same period, surging diesel and freight costs made it “far more expensive” to deliver finished pallets, and delivered prices for new pallets went up. Fastmarkets also revised its pallet price forecast to reflect higher diesel costs into early 2027.
2. Diesel is about $2.70 a gallon higher than a year ago. In its most recent weekly survey, for October 19, 2026, the U.S. Energy Information Administration put on-highway diesel at $6.28 a gallon nationally and $6.35 in the Midwest. That’s up about $2.66 nationally and $2.79 in the Midwest from a year earlier. Diesel touches every step, from logging to delivery at your dock.
3. The government’s price index is still rising. The Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price index for wood pallets and pallet containers rose to 361.825 in September, from 356.438 in August, an increase of about 1.5% in one month and about 4% since May. That’s the national picture, and the September reading came in before the new duty rates took effect.
4. Most Wisconsin pallets aren’t made from Canadian SPF anyway. Most standard industrial pallets in Wisconsin are built from local hardwood, and SPF usually costs more. A cut in softwood duties matters most for pallets, crates, and lumber specified in softwood. For hardwood pallets, freight, labor, and local log supply matter more.
5. Lumber already in the pipeline was bought at the old rates. Inventory at reloads and in yards turns over gradually, so any duty savings show up over weeks and months, not overnight.
What it means for exporters
Cheaper softwood doesn’t change ISPM 15. Pallets, crates, and dunnage going overseas, including to Mexico, still have to be heat-treated and carry the ISPM 15 mark. If softwood becomes more cost-competitive for your export crates or dunnage, it’s worth pricing again. Just make sure the material you specify is heat-treated and marked for export. Our industrial lumber page covers the softwood and hardwood grades we supply, including ISPM 15 heat-treated lumber.
We buy softwood by the rail car, shipped from reload centers or direct from Canadian mills, and source hardwood from Wisconsin sawmills. So we watch these rulings and freight costs closely for our customers.
Four ways to manage packaging cost right now
- Plan ahead and order full truckloads. With freight a bigger share of delivered cost, a full truckload spreads one delivery charge over many more units.
- Tie your pricing to a published index. If your packaging price is linked to a third-party lumber index, changes in lumber cost, including duty changes, show up in your price automatically, in both directions. If it isn’t, ask for a review now rather than waiting for your next annual quote.
- Review the design before you renegotiate. Board thickness, deck coverage, and stringer spacing often affect cost more than any duty change. See custom wood pallets and our free packaging design services.
- Check your species. If a pallet or crate is specified in softwood out of habit, ask whether hardwood would perform as well for less, or whether softwood is now worth a second look for export crates.
What to watch next
- Diesel and freight, which are currently moving delivered pallet prices more than lumber is.
- The eighth administrative review, which will set new duty rates.
- U.S.–Canada trade talks, which could change the lumber picture in either direction.
If you want to talk through what these changes mean for your pallet, crate, or lumber costs, contact us or call 414-520-3366. We’ll review your highest-volume item for free.
Ryan Ziegler, Wisconsin Lumber & Pallet
Sources
- U.S. Department of Commerce, “Certain Softwood Lumber Products From Canada: Final Results of Antidumping Duty Administrative Review,” Federal Register, Oct. 19, 2026
- U.S. Department of Commerce, “Certain Softwood Lumber Products From Canada: Final Results of Countervailing Duty Administrative Review; 2024,” Federal Register, Oct. 19, 2026
- Global Affairs Canada, “Softwood lumber recent developments”
- NAHB, “U.S. Cuts Duties on Canadian Lumber,” Oct. 16, 2026
- Fastmarkets, US Pallet Analytics, September 2026 edition (published Oct. 5, 2026)
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, PPI: Wood Pallets and Pallet Containers (WPU084101)
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (Oct. 20, 2026 release)